United States Department of Transportation
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Travel-Time Reliability in Simulation and Planning Models: Utah Case Study (SHRP2 L04 IAP Round 7)
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2019-10-01
[PDF-1.55 MB]
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Edition:Final Report, October 2017 to October 2019
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Abstract:Travel-time reliability is a crucial indicator in transportation systems performance assessment. Previous studies mostly relied on historical detectors or trajectory data for reliability analysis; however, data availability and limited sample size create major obstacles for robust and comprehensive assessment. Moreover, such analysis that is only based on historical travel time does not allow transportation agencies to assess the effectiveness of new projects and strategies in improving reliability of transportation systems. This study fills this gap by presenting a framework to model and estimate travel-time reliability using microscopic simulation for planning and programming purposes. The framework consists of three major components: Scenario Manager, Scenario Processor, and traffic simulation model. The Scenario Manager captures exogenous sources of travel-time variability by generating multiple representative scenarios composed of various events (e.g. weather, incidents) based on historical records. The Scenario Processor then translates scenarios’ attributes into inputs that can be fed into the microscopic simulation model and modifies simulation input parameters’ values in real-time. The simulation model is further utilized to simulate the generated scenarios and to estimate the effects on travel-time reliability of the study corridor. The proposed framework is applied to the VISSIM model of a corridor along Interstate 15 in Utah County, Utah. Comparison of simulated travel time with observed travel time showed the effectiveness of the proposed framework in modeling travel-time reliability. This framework provides a platform for exploring how different unreliability sources act individually and in interaction with each other in affecting network-wide reliability.
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