A Statewide Assessment of Public Transit Funding Needs for Counties Trending Urban in Georgia
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2020-02-01
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Edition:Final; August 2017–February 2020
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Abstract:This study predicts how spatial and temporal population changes from the 2010 and 2020 decennial censuses will impact funding for the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) § 5311 rural and FTA § 5307 urban transit programs, both in Georgia and nationwide. Binary logit models and geographic information system (GIS) methods were used to predict which areas of the U.S. will be classified as rural, small urban, or large urban after 2020. This information was then used to forecast funding requirements for the FTA § 5311 and FTA § 5307 programs after the 2020 decennial census and to identify rural areas that could become enveloped into large areas after the 2020 decennial census. The latter is important because rural transit agencies that shift to large urban areas after the 2020 decennial census will lose their ability to use federal funding for operating expenses for two years due to the “100 bus rule.” Results show that amount of additional funding needed for the FTA § 5307 small urban will be $344M–$411M, representing a 28%–33% increase over current levels. This report includes a set of appendices that any government agency can use to understand what the potential changes in FTA funding after the 2020 decennial census mean to their constituents. These appendices include the predicted changes in FTA § 5311 and FTA § 5307 funding for each state, as well as the list of urban clusters that are predicted to grow into small urban areas and/or be absorbed into large urban areas.
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