Grain Transportation Prospects [1998-11]
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Grain Transportation Prospects [1998-11]

Filetype[PDF-183.60 KB]


English
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  • Resource Type:
    Research Paper
  • Geographical Coverage:
    United States
  • Corporate Publisher:
    USDA/STB Grain Logistics Task Force
  • Abstract:
    U.S. grain (excluding rice) and soybean production for 1998/99 is forecast at 16,131 million bushels, up 2 percent from 1997/98 and only 74 million bushels short of the record 1994/95 crop. With carry-in stocks totaling 2,474 million bushels for the combined marketing years, 1998/99 available grain and soybean supplies are estimated at 18,839 million bushels, their highest level since the mid-1980’s. Storage capacity in many regions will be as tight as it has been in several years. Prior to the harvest, many grain facilities were holding substantial inventories, and some were moving old-crop grain to outside storage. Available harvest-time grain and soybean supplies in the Eastern Corn Belt, Western Corn Belt, and Central Plains will meet or surpass available storage capacity. Despite continued weak demand for export rail movements, total grain carloadings on U.S. railroads were up 2 percent during the third quarter (July-September) of 1998, as compared to last year, and up 11 percent from the same quarter in 1996. This increase is the result of continued strong demand for rail transportation in the Eastern United States. Third quarter grain carloadings in the western United States fell short of last year’s level, largely because of weak demand for export rail shipments, particularly to the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Despite projected modest improvements in export demand for corn and spring wheat, the PNW export corridor seems unlikely to see substantial increases in volume in the near term. The fourth quarter of 1998, consistent with the normal seasonal pattern for shipping demand, will be the strongest quarter for rail transportation demand this year. Large harvests and strong domestic demand for grain and soybeans will drive demand for rail transportation. The need to reposition grain from ground piles into use or into more permanent storage by winter will also add to demand. Grain carloadings on all the railroads since the beginning of October are already showing the seasonal upturn that accompanies the harvest. However, the secondary market for guaranteed rail freight and the spot market for barge transportation suggest some weakening in grain transportation demand as we move into early 1999.
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