Crash Prediction Models for Older Drivers: A Panel Data Analysis Approach

Details

• Creators:
  Hu, Patricia ; Trumble, David ; Foley, Daniel ; Eberhard, John ; Wallace, Robert
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Accident Rates Aged Drivers Diseases And Medical Conditions Safety
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• TRIS Online Accession Number:
  784570
• NTL Classification:
  NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Highway Safety ; NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Human Factors
• Abstract:
  The graying of America is resulting in a larger proportion of older individuals
  
  in the population. Recent transportation surveys show that an increasing number
  
  of older individuals are licensed to drive and that they drive more than their
  
  same age cohort a decade ago. These trends necessitate increased study of their
  
  potential highway safety problems. Considerable progress has been made on
  
  understanding older drivers safety issues. Nonetheless, research has been
  
  rather limited and the findings inconclusive. One of the methodological
  
  limitations is the lack of considering temporal order between events (i.e., the
  
  time between onset of medical condition, symptom, and crash). Without
  
  time-series data, researchers have often linked a "snap-shot" of medical
  
  conditions and driving patterns to more than one year of crash data, hoping to
  
  accumulate enough data on crashes. The interpretation of the results from these
  
  studies is difficult in that one cannot explicitly attribute the increase in
  
  highway crash rates to medical conditions and/or physical limitations. This
  
  paper uses a panel data analysis approach to identify factors that place older
  
  drivers at greater crash risk. Our results show that factors that place female
  
  drivers at greater crash risk are different from those influencing male drivers.
  
  More risk factors were found to be significant in affecting older mens
  
  involvement in crashes than older women. When the analysis controlled for the
  
  amount of driving, women who live alone or who experience back pain were found
  
  to have a higher crash risk. Similarly, men who are employed, score low on
  
  word-recall tests, have a history of glaucoma, or use antidepressant drugs were
  
  found to have a higher crash risk. The most influential risk factors in men
  
  were the amount of miles driven, and use of antidepressants.
  
  
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:b0cacfeda60337f2d6e3f7426aa54273a22689110bc998f3a7ec8837975419c2
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/4520/dot_4520_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 97.52 KB ]