Traffic Variability
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2015-01-01
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Abstract:AADT for many roadways is estimated through a temporary count obtained over anywhere from a few hours to one week, and subsequently expanded to a full year using factors derived from permanent count stations with similar characteristics. Historic research has focused on determining the optimum duration for the short-term count to balance resource restrictions, which favor shorter count durations, against statistical accuracy, which favors longer count durations. This task quantifies the relative accuracy and precision associated with different durations. It also evaluates the impact of day of week and month of year for AADT estimation. Results are evaluated for different factoring methods, and different factor grouping methods. FHWA Travel Monitoring Analysis System (TMAS) volume data from 14 years consisting of hourly counts by day from nearly 43,000 continuous permanent volume traffic data sites/years in the United States comprised the reference dataset for this research. A subset of 320 of these were utilized which include complete data for all 24 hours of every day of the year. These sites collectively represented a wide range of AADT volumes, nine functional classes, 32 states, and years 2000 through 2012. This report is a final task report that summarizes accuracy and precision of AADT estimation for various short-term count durations, by day of week and month of year in which count was obtained, and includes the analysis methodology and summary statistics findings.
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