Relative Accuracy of CDM and ETMS in Predicting Airport Arrival Demand
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1999-09-01
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Abstract:Safety and efficiency in national airspace usage are the fundamental goals of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). In order to achieve these objectives, a number of complex systems have been developed. One of these systems, the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS) is used to predict and manage the efficient flow of aircraft through controlled airspace. Of particular interest to this study, ETMS predicts the flow of aircraft to airports many hours into the future. Under ETMS, flight plans received from the airlines are typically provided less than 2 hours prior to departure. Until flight plan data is received, ETMS relies on Official Airline Guide (0AG) schedule data that is updated weekly. This leaves a significant period of time during which the airlines may have updated flight information not available to the FAA. The collaborative Decision Making (CDM) program was formally initiated in 1995 in order to improve air traffic flow management through increased sharing of information and decision making among the FAA and the airlines. Under CDM, as the airlines change their flight schedules, they send flight creation (FC), modification (FM), and cancellation (FX) messages to the CDM system, starting 15 hours prior to departure. These messages provide the CDM system with updates to the OAG data prior to the issuance of flight plans. This study has two primary objectives: 1. quantify the difference in the accuracy of airport arrival demand predictions performed by ETMS and CDM; and 2. identify and explain the differences between ETMS and CDM predictions.
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