United States Department of Transportation
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TRIS Online Accession Number:01646821
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:Growth in recent decades has put pressure on industrial land owners to convert prime areas along the waterfront to residential and office uses, despite vacancy rates of just five percent. As of the late 2000s, 38% of industrial land in selected Bay Area sub-regions was already planned for new office, residential, or mixed uses. Although demand from industrial businesses is steady or growing, the amount of warehouse and manufacturing space in central areas is declining: in a recent five-year period in the East Bay, about seven percent of building space was lost or converted. Even if this land remains industrial, the supply will still be insufficient to house demand by 2035. This will cause many PDR (Production, Distribution and Repair) businesses to shift location to the region’s periphery, or even adjacent lower-cost regions (in this case, the Central Valley), with increasing VMT (Vehicle Miles Traveled) and its implications for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This Industrial Land and Jobs Study provides an analysis of the demand for and supply of industrially zoned land in the nine-county region, both now and in the future. The study was conducted by UC Berkeley and funded by Caltrans, via the University of California Transportation Center. Throughout the course of the study, UC-Berkeley researchers coordinated closely with the staff of ABAG, as well as a Technical Advisory Committee consisting of city officials in economic development and planning, as well as business associations focused on industrial businesses or real estate.
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