United States Department of Transportation
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Estimating Aggregate Regional User On-Time Reliability Benefit from Pre-Trip ATIS: Seattle Case Study
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2003-12-01
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[PDF-887.39 KB]
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Alternative Title:Estimating Aggregate Regional User On-Time Reliability Benefit from Pre-trip Advanced Traveler Information Systems
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Abstract:This study explores the on-time reliability benefits to potential users of a personalized advanced traveler information system (ATIS) providing real-time pre-trip roadway information for the Seattle morning peak period through the application of Heuristic On-line Web- linked Arrival Time Estimation (HOWLATE) methodology. Previous research using this technique based findings on the assumption of equal weighting of all trips within a regional network. This study weights results by regional demand patterns to generate more accurate estimates of regional user benefits. The study also estimates annual regional user benefits to ATIS users for low levels of market penetration (0% - 3%). Market penetration percentages are based on the population of travelers using roads where ATIS is available rather than the population of the region. Based on a 6-month case study of Seattle morning peak period, regional benefit to routine users of the ATIS in the morning peak ranges from negligible to substantial ($2.5 million annually) depending on the market penetration profile and ATIS accuracy level. Regional ATIS users reduction in trip disutility is overestimated by 22% when regional demand is not considered because of an over-representation of very long trips that are likely to have high benefit from ATIS use. Findings from this case study also suggest that at high levels of reporting error, in the order of 15% to 20%, there will exist pocket populations of ATIS users that will derive significant benefits from ATIS.
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