Survey of Futurist Trends
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Survey of Futurist Trends

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    Final Report
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  • Abstract:
    According to many economists, the criteria used to pinpoint potential areas of future development have been transformed by the inception of a "New Economy" -- with new economic rules. This report addresses this presumption. First, by probing the literature published by six different world-renowned authors and two business publications that carry out futuristic surveys, a consensus of their ideas was compiled. Then, these ideas were presented to other national and local experts in a survey form. By aggregating the views of the authors, the surveyed experts and the participants of Governor Hull's Arizona Partnership of the New Economy, a list of ten tenets for future economic development was assembled. Lastly, the validity of some of these tenets was tested with statistical methods. The statistical research suggested that the amount of developable land available for growth was still a significant factor in attracting employers and residents. While the strength of that link has lessened, the nation is still not fully emerged in the so-called "New Economy". Corporate tax structure still played a statistical role in growth comparisons between states, whereas it is obviously not a factor intrastate. Yet, the "New Economy" measure of venture capital invested within a community is approaching the importance of corporate tax treatment. And, the new measure of communications "connectability" is rivaling the importance of labor costs and weather amenities. Thus, while the "old" factors of growth such as developable land, corporate tax structure and labor costs can not yet be forsaken; the "new" factors of venture capital and connectability are undoubtedly gaining in importance in economic growth.
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