Monitoring Risk Associated with Operations of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in the National Airspace System: Models for Analysis of Mandatory Occurrence Reports involving UAS-Manned Aircraft Encounters
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2018-09-01
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Edition:Final report
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NTL Classification:NTL-AVIATION-AVIATION;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/Airworthiness;NTL-AVIATION-Airports and Facilities;
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Abstract:Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) are operating in the national airspace (NAS) in increasing numbers, and at times have flown in close proximity to manned aircraft. These events are reported in part in Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Mandatory Occurrence Report (MOR) data. The Volpe Center has developed two models to monitor risk associated with UAS-manned aircraft encounters in MOR data. First, a severity categorization model provides a snapshot of the risk of UAS-manned aircraft encounters in MOR data, in terms of reported proximity between aircraft and proximity of the event to the closest airport. Second, a severity quantification model estimates the probability of collision and probability of fatality given collision inherent in the physical parameters of the encounter. Outputs of the model distinguish serious events from less serious events and ‘non-events’; and can be tracked over time to assess the effects of technology, industry, and policy changes with respect to UAS integration. In all, results show most MORs are less serious or ‘non-events’ while a limited number of MORs carry increased risk, merit further analysis, and provide cause for improved data collection.
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