United States Department of Transportation
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TRIS Online Accession Number:01640017
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Edition:Final Report
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Abstract:This study examines household vehicle fleets with a specific focus on transaction decisions that lead to their formation over time. One main focus of this study is also non-motorized vehicles, more specifically bicycles, and their role in these household vehicle fleets. The overarching objective is to investigate factors that underlie the adoption of bikes, especially their transaction decisions. To accomplish this overarching objective, two main tasks were undertaken. (i) First, a retrospective vehicle ownership and transaction survey is developed, guided by the 2011 Oregon Household Travel and Activity Survey (OHAS) dataset. Although the OHAS contains information on motor vehicle fleets, such as vintage and make, transaction information is absent. Furthermore, while the OHAS also contained information on total household bicycle ownership counts, a more detailed delineation of these are not present; children’s bikes used for relatively short neighborhood level distances are not distinguished adult bikes which may be used for daily work commutes. (ii) Second, this work will also provide a set of econometric models for observed vehicle transactions. The set of vehicles modeled includes those captured under conventional household travel surveys and bicycles. These econometric models are intended to address the probability of specific types of transactions, including disposal/retirement, replacement and acquisition decisions. The results indicate that there is much heterogeneity in the underlying factors for bike adoption, and more specifically transactions. An econometric analysis of revealed household bike ownership rates indicates that two regimes represent two distinct market segments comprised of (i) households that are considering owning bicycles and (ii) those that have selected out of bicycle ownership. An interesting result was that the coefficients for the same variables were different between the choice and count models. The retrospective survey revealed that significant variation exists in terms of which types of bikes were likely to be additions versus replacements. Overall, the results of the retrospective survey underscore this heterogeneity in transaction decisions, and bike ownership overall.
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