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Review of Aircraft Crash Databases and Evaluation of the Probability of Aircraft Crashes on to a MAGLEV Guide-way: Technical Report

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    NTL-RAIL TRANSPORTATION-High Speed Ground Transportation;NTL-RAIL TRANSPORTATION-Rail Safety;NTL-AVIATION-AVIATION;NTL-AVIATION-Airports and Facilities;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/Airworthiness;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Human Factors;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-SAFETY AND SECURITY;
  • Abstract:
    The System Safety & Security Division at The Volpe National Transportation System Center (VNTSC), Cambridge, MA is participating in an overall risk assessment study on the safety of High Speed Magnetic Levitation Transportation Systems ("MagLev"). Transrapid Maglev technology is currently under consideration for application in several different corridors in the U.S. as well as in Germany. One of the projects being considered in the U.S. is the Florida Magnetic Levitation Demonstration Project which proposes to link Orlando International Airport to a point southwest of the airport on International Drive (near the Disney World) . The proposed Maglev guideway will be approximately 13.5 miles in length and will be elevated for majority of the route. The vehicle planned for revenue service, the TR-07 Maglev system, is currently undergoing the final stages of certification testing at the Transrapid Test Facility in Emsland, Germany. One of the important issues involved in the consideration of the MagLev system is safety. Many different aspects of the safety in transporting people at high speeds are being studied. In general, risk analysis methodology is being utilized to determine the acceptability of the system as a passenger carrier from the perspective of people safety. In these studies, a number of potential accident scenarios are postulated, their occurrence probabilities and consequences (if the scenario occurs) are calculated. One such accident scenario is the impact of an aircraft crashing on to the MagLev guideway in the vicinity of Orlando International Airport. Such a crash resulting in serious damage to the guideway, if it occurs at a time the MagLev vehicle is about to pass over the affected section of the guideway, can result in serious injury and casualties among the travelling public. It is with a view to determining the potential for occurrence of such an aircraft accident scenario that the work reported in this report was undertaken.
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