United States Department of Transportation
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Community Options Model): Using Artificial Intelligence for Transportation Planning and Community Decision Making
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1997-01-01
[PDF-44.19 KB]
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Abstract:This paper describes the Community Options Model for Transportation-Related Issues (COMTRI) designed to estimate the social and economic impacts of highway realignments on rural Michigan communities for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT). COMTRI is designed to help both the MDOT and individual communities ?see? the likely outcomes of potential highway realignments and other changes, and of potential community responses to such changes. It predicts the change in community indicators over time?such as population, jobs, income, unemployment, tax rates, local government income and spending, property values, vehicle trips and congestion, education attainment, and community services quality?in response to policy or action scenarios posed by the user. The model is equally useful for evaluating a wide variety of non-transportation community options for community development. COMTRI is a hybrid knowledge-based and statistics-based systems analysis of community social, economic, and transportation systems and their responses to exogenous action and policy scenarios. The model ?thinks? and predicts using some 400 equations that have been fitted to statistical data. This paper describe how several Michigan communities are using COMTRI interactively to evaluate the effects of their own potential policies and actions. By exploring a variety of options, communities can identify strategies that are more likely to produce the outcomes they prefer. Skillfully used, such information can help unify community efforts, which should increase the community?s chances of reaching its goals. Further, with the model the MDOT?s formal economic and environmental impact assessments can now specify how the impacts of a given realignment may vary depending upon the community?s response to the change. 13p.
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