United States Department of Transportation
i
How will e-commerce growth impact our transportation network? Final report.
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2017-08-01
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[PDF-1.01 MB]
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Abstract:The steady growth in online retailing continues to rattle long-established business models and the shopping patterns of consumers (who are also taxpayers, voters, and drivers). Those consumers are increasingly choosing shorter delivery cycles—opting in some cases to receive their goods within hours rather than days. The demand for more immediate delivery requires retailers to be more nimble and radically changes warehousing logistics. Sellers are augmenting their reliance on million-plus square foot facilities, adding smaller sorting and delivery hubs and locating them closer to their customers. Moreover, while retailers continue to employ traditional delivery services like FedEx, UPS, and USPS, they also are looking to independent contractors who use personal vehicles to transport packages in the same way that transportation network companies like Uber ferry passengers. These changes can directly impact our transportation system, and they bring to light a number of challenges for transportation planners, operating agencies, and policy makers. For instance: - Evolving delivery operations cloud the picture of how carriers are regulated. Much of the regulation of motor carriers in Texas relates directly to the weight capacity of the vehicles transporting cargo. Most traditional delivery operations fall under this statutory description, requiring certificates of operating authority from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration. The use of personal autos by people acting as independent contractors may meet the basic definition of a motor carrier (transporting cargo for hire), but these contractors are not required to register as such because of the vehicles’ smaller size. Consequently, they avoid a number of safety and operational requirements. - Changes in urban logistics will impact roadway system use and needs. The further expansion of e-commerce will increase warehousing needs. These facilities, located increasingly within urban areas, require interstate highway access to accommodate more frequent daily truck traffic. Even with increased automation, these centers will require larger workforces than traditional warehouses would, creating more trips by employees coming from areas with limited transit service options and working multiple shifts. - Personal vehicle use in express delivery growth will affect traffic patterns. Growing numbers of express deliveries involve personal vehicles, mirroring the model of transportation network companies, which may increase the number of non-peak-period trips into residential areas. These trips may not be captured in current regional travel demand models that help to forecast system needs, so planning agencies will need to adjust their models to ensure that those needs are more accurately projected. E-commerce and its associated delivery demands will likely continue to disrupt traditional business practices. Planners and policy makers alike will need to closely monitor these changes to effectively plan and operate a transportation system that meets the needs of a growing population of road users and consumers.
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