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How will e-commerce growth impact our transportation network? Final report.

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    Final Report
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  • Abstract:
    The steady growth in online retailing continues to rattle long-established business models and the

    shopping patterns of consumers (who are also taxpayers, voters, and drivers). Those consumers

    are increasingly choosing shorter delivery cycles—opting in some cases to receive their goods

    within hours rather than days.

    The demand for more immediate delivery requires retailers to be more nimble and radically

    changes warehousing logistics. Sellers are augmenting their reliance on million-plus square foot

    facilities, adding smaller sorting and delivery hubs and locating them closer to their customers.

    Moreover, while retailers continue to employ traditional delivery services like FedEx, UPS, and

    USPS, they also are looking to independent contractors who use personal vehicles to transport

    packages in the same way that transportation network companies like Uber ferry passengers.

    These changes can directly impact our transportation system, and they bring to light a number of

    challenges for transportation planners, operating agencies, and policy makers. For instance:

    - Evolving delivery operations cloud the picture of how carriers are regulated. Much of the

    regulation of motor carriers in Texas relates directly to the weight capacity of the vehicles

    transporting cargo. Most traditional delivery operations fall under this statutory

    description, requiring certificates of operating authority from the Federal Motor Carrier

    Safety Administration. The use of personal autos by people acting as independent

    contractors may meet the basic definition of a motor carrier (transporting cargo for hire),

    but these contractors are not required to register as such because of the vehicles’ smaller

    size. Consequently, they avoid a number of safety and operational requirements.

    - Changes in urban logistics will impact roadway system use and needs. The further

    expansion of e-commerce will increase warehousing needs. These facilities, located

    increasingly within urban areas, require interstate highway access to accommodate more

    frequent daily truck traffic. Even with increased automation, these centers will require

    larger workforces than traditional warehouses would, creating more trips by employees

    coming from areas with limited transit service options and working multiple shifts.

    - Personal vehicle use in express delivery growth will affect traffic patterns. Growing

    numbers of express deliveries involve personal vehicles, mirroring the model of

    transportation network companies, which may increase the number of non-peak-period

    trips into residential areas. These trips may not be captured in current regional travel

    demand models that help to forecast system needs, so planning agencies will need to

    adjust their models to ensure that those needs are more accurately projected.

    E-commerce and its associated delivery demands will likely continue to disrupt traditional

    business practices. Planners and policy makers alike will need to closely monitor these changes

    to effectively plan and operate a transportation system that meets the needs of a growing

    population of road users and consumers.

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