The potential to build current natural gas infrastructure to accommodate the future conversion to near-zero transportation technology : a research report from the National Center for Sustainable Transportation.
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2017-03-01
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Creators:Jaffe, Amy Myers ; Dominguez-Faus, Rosa ; Ogden, Joan
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Parker, Nathan C.
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Scheitrum, Daniel
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McDonald, Zane
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Fan, Yueyue
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Durbin, Tom
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Karavalakis, George
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Wilcock, Justin
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Miller, Marshall
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Yang, Christopher
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Abstract:The emergence of natural gas as an abundant, inexpensive fuel in the United States has ; highlighted the possibility that natural gas could play a significant role in the transition to low ; carbon fuels. Natural gas is often cited as a “bridge” to low carbon fuels in the transportation ; sector. Major corporations are already investing billions of dollars to build infrastructure to ; feed natural gas into the U.S. trucking industry and expand the use of natural gas in fleets. In ; the state of California, natural gas fueling infrastructure is expanding, especially in and around ; the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The use of natural gas fueled medium and heavyduty ; fleets is currently on an upswing. ; The emergence of new interest in investment in natural gas fueling infrastructure in California ; raises the question regarding whether natural gas infrastructure could become stranded by the ; ultimate shift to lower carbon fuels or whether the natural gas infrastructure system offers ; synergies that could potentially facilitate speedier adoption of lower carbon fuels. Industry has ; advocated that overlap of key natural gas infrastructure will lower transition costs and provide ; consumers with an optimal mix of fuels as the state’s commercial vehicle stock is replaced ; with alternative vehicles over time. ; Development of alternative fuels that have low greenhouse gas emissions and low criteria ; pollutant emissions, such as renewable natural gas and hydrogen, are considered a major ; avenue for the state of California to meet climate change and air quality goals. ; We examine the precise natural gas infrastructure that is economically and technologically ; synergistic for both natural gas and renewable natural gas in the near-term, and alternative ; fuels like renewable natural gas (RNG) and hydrogen in the long term. In particular, we ; examine optimum paths for developing infrastructure in the near-term that will accommodate ; alternative fuels once they become available at the commercial scale. The original design of ; the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) provides time for the development of advanced, nearzero ; technologies. We consider the credits from the LCFS in our analysis. ; We find that infrastructure requirements for natural gas and renewable natural gas (RNG) ; have many synergies. Emerging RNG supplies can utilize much of the same infrastructure as ; fossil natural gas networks, sharing the same vehicles, station equipment and midstream ; pipelines for transmission. The time frame for availability and opportunity are also ; contiguous, allowing for RNG and fossil natural gas networks to be developed ; simultaneously, each facilitating the other. Fossil natural gas network investors can benefit ; from receiving carbon credits by blending RNG into their fossil based natural gas fuel while ; RNG investors can save costs by piggy backing on existing fossil natural gas infrastructure. ; There substantial sources of RNG in California that are commercially competitive with ; existing fossil fuel-based transportation fuels because carbon externalities are taken into ; consideration in the California market through existing programs such as the Low Carbon ; Fuel Standard (LCFS) and the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standards (RFS). Those resources will be ; enabled by the build-out of natural gas infrastructure and adoption of natural gas fueled ; vehicles for commercial transportation. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) fueling stations for ; heavy trucks now exist in over a dozen locations around the state of California and continue to ; expand. But widespread adoption of RNG will require new facilities for the clean-up and upgrading of biogas from anaerobic digestion and collection of landfill gas. Thus, price ; support for RNG through LCFS credits, RFS credits and higher tipping fees for municipal ; solid waste can be influential in propelling replacement of fossil natural gas with lower carbon ; gas from bio sources. The minimal price support required by each pathway in order to ; compete with fossil natural gas is $11.50, $3.75, $5.90, and $26.00 per mmBTU for MSW, ; Landfill, WWTP, and Dairy, respectively. In per gasoline-gallon-equivalent (gge) terms, the ; minimal price support required by each pathway is $1.38, $0.45, $0.71, and $3.15 per gge for ; MSW, Landfill, WWTP, and Dairy, respectively. ; Hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars are now being introduced in California, with tens of ; thousands of vehicles expected by the early 2020s, served by 100 or more public stations, ; located primarily in urban areas. However, the best synergies with natural gas vehicles and ; infrastructure, in terms of both equipment and location, may involve transitioning from ; compressed natural gas to hydrogen in freight applications. ; Initial infrastructure roll outs for medium and heavy duty trucking can register early success ; through pilot programs for short-haul applications such as last mile deliveries and drayage ; trucks, where back to base stations “behind the fence” facilities can promote use by fleets. ; Industry estimates are that it will take roughly 7 to 15 years before new truck platforms can be ; designed and built, leveraging equipment development for successful bus and truck fleets. ; Private stations for hydrogen for medium and heavy duty vehicles with short haul applications ; would supplement or replace vehicles running on compressed natural gas (CNG) derived from ; fossil natural gas or renewable natural gas. “Behind the fence” facilities overlap between CNG ; and hydrogen will build off the same pipeline connections if hydrogen is reformed from fossil ; or renewable natural gas. Separate storage facilities and refueling equipment will be needed ; for a transition from natural gas or RNG to hydrogen fuel. Co-location of fueling ; infrastructure for natural gas, RNG and hydrogen may lower overall costs but the need for ; costlier equipment to handle hydrogen, which can be more corrosive to pipeline and storage ; materials than natural gas means higher credits and incentives compared to renewable natural ; gas would be important to drive a widespread adoption of hydrogen as a fuel for medium and ; heavy duty commercial vehicles. ; While California has already begun the process of adding public hydrogen stations for ; primarily serving passenger vehicles in urban locations, the timing for the likely build-out for ; hydrogen stations serving new, hydrogen-ready trucks and buses will likely be a decade or ; more later than the current expansion of the fossil natural gas and RNG networks, limiting ; some of the potential for synergies for overlapping infrastructure for commercial fleets. ; Natural gas fueling infrastructure built today will need to be refurbished or replaced within 15 ; years, while hydrogen networks are likely to only reach wide scale adoption in that timeframe. ; However, advanced planning for eventual addition of hydrogen fueling infrastructure at new ; compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling locations can facilitate the adoption ; of hydrogen fuel at a later date and smooth the transition to near zero carbon technologies. ; Our analysis shows that certain port and urban locations will favor renewable natural gas ; resources initially but may be able to link to hydrogen supply chains in the longer term.
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