United States Department of Transportation
i
Evaluating Coastal and River Valley Communities Evacuation Network Performance Using Macroscopic Productivity
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2017-06-30
[PDF-912.81 KB]
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TRIS Online Accession Number:01643040
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Edition:Final Research Report
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Abstract:The ever-increasing processing speed and computational power of computers and simulation systems has led to correspondingly larger, more sophisticated representations of evacuation traffic processes. Today, micro-level analyses can be conducted for megaregion-level hurricane evacuations involving millions of vehicles, spanning thousands of miles of roadway over multiple states, lasting over several days, and incorporating the intermodal exchange of evacuees. However, the effort required to build such models and the volume of output data they produce also presents difficulties for analysts as they code networks, generate demand, model control elements and then calibrate results and interpret output.
The goal of this paper was to quantify and describe the operational conditions of evacuation traffic “network productivity.” The concepts suggest that maximum production, and therefore trip completion, is realized when the network achieves the highest rate of vehicles-miles traveled in a time interval. In this research, a megaregion evacuation model was used to quantify the average network velocity, demand and network length which was necessary to estimate the network productivity. The results showed that network productivity exhibited a peaking characteristic. This suggested that network productivity can be maximized on a macroscopic scale as a function of demand. With knowledge of the optimal network demand, emergency planners can develop evacuation management plans which reach and maintain traffic at an optimal demand level. When this optimal demand level is exceeded, evacuees are likely to experience inordinately lengthy delays. Conversely, conditions with demand levels below the optimal level will result in reduced overall network productivity and fewer trips completed per time interval.
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