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Simulation of ridesourcing using agent-based demand and supply regional models : potential market demand for first-mile transit travel and reduction in vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area.
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  • Abstract:
    In this study, we use existing modeling tools and data from the San Francisco Bay Area

    (California) to understand the potential market demand for a “first” mile transit access service

    and possible reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (and thus GHGs) at both the regional

    and station level. We develop a project scenario that targets commuters who drive alone but

    could take rail (Bay Area Rapid Transit, or BART) to work. We use travel time, cost, and distance

    data from San Francisco Bay Area travel models, Google and BART APIs, and TNC fares to

    explore the magnitude of change in overall travel time and cost for travelers who switch from

    driving alone to using TNC and BART to travel to work. The analysis indicates that 31% of the

    identified drive-alone trips could reduce generalized costs (travel time and monetary costs) by

    switching to TNC and BART. If all travelers who could benefit from traveling by TNC and BART,

    did in fact switch from drive-alone travel, about 40 thousand new BART trips could be

    generated and over a half a million miles of VMT avoided during the morning commute period.

    Most of these trips experienced relatively high levels of cost and VMT savings, which may be

    more likely to motivate behavioral change. Examination of cost savings by income level and

    vehicle availability suggests that the new service is more likely to benefit lower income

    households with fewer vehicles. Sensitivity analyses indicate that even with increased TNC fares

    and waiting times, there is still a relatively large number of trips that could benefit from

    switching from driving to TNC and BART. Tests of a shared TNC BART access service suggest cost

    savings and VMT reductions even when travel time costs increase by 60%. Analysis of benefits

    by station indicate locations with relatively high market potential (i.e., trips and cost saving) and

    environmental benefits (VMT reduction) for early pilot implementation. These results can be

    used to estimate potential TNC fare subsidies to increase performance by station to achieve project objectives, such as equitable access, increased BART ridership, and reduced VMT.

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