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Simulation of ridesourcing using agent-based demand and supply regional models : potential market demand for first-mile transit travel and reduction in vehicle miles traveled in the San Francisco Bay Area.

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  • Abstract:
    In this study, we use existing modeling tools and data from the San Francisco Bay Area ; (California) to understand the potential market demand for a “first” mile transit access service ; and possible reductions in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) (and thus GHGs) at both the regional ; and station level. We develop a project scenario that targets commuters who drive alone but ; could take rail (Bay Area Rapid Transit, or BART) to work. We use travel time, cost, and distance ; data from San Francisco Bay Area travel models, Google and BART APIs, and TNC fares to ; explore the magnitude of change in overall travel time and cost for travelers who switch from ; driving alone to using TNC and BART to travel to work. The analysis indicates that 31% of the ; identified drive-alone trips could reduce generalized costs (travel time and monetary costs) by ; switching to TNC and BART. If all travelers who could benefit from traveling by TNC and BART, ; did in fact switch from drive-alone travel, about 40 thousand new BART trips could be ; generated and over a half a million miles of VMT avoided during the morning commute period. ; Most of these trips experienced relatively high levels of cost and VMT savings, which may be ; more likely to motivate behavioral change. Examination of cost savings by income level and ; vehicle availability suggests that the new service is more likely to benefit lower income ; households with fewer vehicles. Sensitivity analyses indicate that even with increased TNC fares ; and waiting times, there is still a relatively large number of trips that could benefit from ; switching from driving to TNC and BART. Tests of a shared TNC BART access service suggest cost ; savings and VMT reductions even when travel time costs increase by 60%. Analysis of benefits ; by station indicate locations with relatively high market potential (i.e., trips and cost saving) and ; environmental benefits (VMT reduction) for early pilot implementation. These results can be ; used to estimate potential TNC fare subsidies to increase performance by station to achieve project objectives, such as equitable access, increased BART ridership, and reduced VMT.
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    urn:sha-512:a4604f40931108af7185079a1605b8b47bd1c9e9d1f0194eeed5ad31305c739dc0404ffc24274c13ee360e19ca19adaf5212255926595c8d0b6515e4b8a43ef6
File Language:
English
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