Using a safety forecast model to calculate future safety metrics.

Braley, Kordel; Worthen, Chad

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Using a safety forecast model to calculate future safety metrics.

2017-05-01
By Braley, Kordel ; Worthen, Chad

File Language:

English

Details

Creators:

Braley, Kordel ; Worthen, Chad
Corporate Creators:

RSG, Inc.
Corporate Contributors:

Utah. Dept. of Transportation. Research Division
Subject/TRT Terms:
Publication/ Report Number:

UT-17.10
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

United States ; Utah
Corporate Publisher:

Utah. Dept. of Transportation. Research Division
Abstract:

This research sought to identify a process to improve long-range planning prioritization by using forecasted ; safety metrics in place of the existing Utah Department of Transportation Safety Index—a metric based on historical ; crash data. The research team developed a Safety Forecast Model using Highway Safety Manual Safety ; Performance Functions and Crash Modification Factors. The research team obtained existing roadway ; characteristics that served as inputs for the Safety Forecast Model from uPlan. The research team also collected ; future condition data—such as forecast volumes and lanes—from the Utah Statewide Travel Model, a travel demand ; forecasting model. The Safety Forecast Model compared crashes predicted based on the current 2015–2040 UDOT ; Long-Range Plan (LRP) Build scenario to crashes predicted based on the No-Build scenario. The research team ; determined, through a case study of 15 LRP widening projects, that the project prioritization ranking changes if the ; ranking considers future safety impacts rather than relying solely on historical crash data. The research team also ; determined that the Safety Forecast Model could be used to recommend safety projects and perform systemic safety ; analyses.
Format:

PDF
Funding:

16-8402 ; 5H07630H
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/32325/dot_32325_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.48 MB]
Collection(s):

US Transportation Collection
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:aa6be8ab5acc576d5bd4a4cf9911ffcc1912715ebc39faf2d48d7ac2df83cf93

File Language:

English

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