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Using a safety forecast model to calculate future safety metrics.
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2017-05-01
[PDF-4.48 MB]
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Abstract:This research sought to identify a process to improve long-range planning prioritization by using forecasted
safety metrics in place of the existing Utah Department of Transportation Safety Index—a metric based on historical
crash data. The research team developed a Safety Forecast Model using Highway Safety Manual Safety
Performance Functions and Crash Modification Factors. The research team obtained existing roadway
characteristics that served as inputs for the Safety Forecast Model from uPlan. The research team also collected
future condition data—such as forecast volumes and lanes—from the Utah Statewide Travel Model, a travel demand
forecasting model. The Safety Forecast Model compared crashes predicted based on the current 2015–2040 UDOT
Long-Range Plan (LRP) Build scenario to crashes predicted based on the No-Build scenario. The research team
determined, through a case study of 15 LRP widening projects, that the project prioritization ranking changes if the
ranking considers future safety impacts rather than relying solely on historical crash data. The research team also
determined that the Safety Forecast Model could be used to recommend safety projects and perform systemic safety
analyses.
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