United States Department of Transportation
i
The formulation and estimation of a spatial skew-normal generalized ordered-response model.
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2016-06-01
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Abstract:This paper proposes a new spatial generalized ordered response model with skew-normal kernel error terms and an
associated estimation method. It contributes to the spatial analysis field by allowing a flexible and parametric skew-normal
distribution for the kernel error term in traditional specifications of the spatial model. The resulting model is
estimated using Bhat’s (2011) maximum approximate composite marginal likelihood (MACML) inference
approach. The model is applied to an analysis of bicycling frequency, using data from the 2014 Puget Sound
household travel survey undertaken in the Puget Sound region in the State of Washington in the United States. Our
results underscore the important effects of demographic variables, as well as the miles of bicycle lanes in an
individual’s immediate residential neighborhood, on bicycling propensity. An interesting finding is that women and
young individuals (18-34 years of age) in particular “warm up” to bicycling as more investment is made in
bicycling infrastructure, thus leading not only to a larger pool of bicyclists due to bicycling infrastructure
enhancements, but also a more diverse and inclusive one. The results highlight the importance of introducing social
dependence effects and non-normal kernel error terms from a policy standpoint. Specifically, our results suggest
that ignoring these effects, as has been done by all earlier bicycling studies, can underestimate the impacts of
bicycling infrastructure improvements and public campaigns on bicycle use frequency, potentially leading to under-investments
in bicycling infrastructure projects.
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