Risk-based flood-planning strategy for Vermont's roadway network.
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2015-06-01
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Abstract:In this project, the authors extend the use of a previously established measure of link-specific criticality, the Network Robustness Index (NRI), to address disruptions in Vermont’s federal-aid road network caused by summertime flooding. The goal of the project is to identify the most critical links in the state-wide roadway network by quantifying the impacts associated with real-world flooding threats. Links, or road segments, are rank-ordered using a risk-based probability approach that takes into account the likelihood that a particular link will be flooded, the expected reduction in capacity on the affected link due to the flooding event, and the dynamic rerouting of travelers. This report describes a novel network-disruption model that includes the probabilities of some type of capacity disruption on a link-by-line basis for a realistic flood threat framework in the state Vermont. The loss of capacity resulting from rainfall and flooding events can be estimated for each link in the roadway network using a disruption probability density function (PDF). The authors combine an established measure of link specific network-wide vulnerability, the NRI, with link specific disruption PDFs to produce a link-specific flood disruption risk metric for the entire roadway network.
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