United States Department of Transportation
i
Impacts of potential seismic landslides on lifeline corridors.
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2015-02-01
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[PDF-11.88 MB]
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Abstract:This report presents a fully probabilistic method for regional seismically induced landslide hazard analysis and
mapping. The method considers the most current predictions for strong ground motions and seismic sources
through use of the U.S.G.S. seismic hazard curves in conjunction with topographic, geologic, and other
geospatial information. Probabilistic landslide triggering analysis is performed based on Newmark’s sliding
block theory. Because strength parameters are difficult to obtain in detail for a large regional area, friction
angles for each lithological unit are estimated from histograms of the terrain slope at locations of previously
mapped landslides within the unit. Afterwards, empirical models are used to predict the probability of a
landslide triggering and the probability of horizontal displacement from a landslide exceeding specific thresholds
(i.e., 0.1, 0.3, 1.0 m) relevant to engineering and planning purposes.
The probabilistic landslide-triggering map is evaluated by comparing its predictions with previously mapped
landslides from the Statewide Landslide Inventory Database of Oregon (SLIDO). Over 99.8% of the landslides
in SLIDO are located in areas mapped with very high probability (i.e., 80-100%) of a landslide triggering.
The created landslide hazard maps are suitable for regional resilience and planning studies by various agencies,
as well as integration with maps of other types of hazards for probabilistic-based multi-hazard calculations and
risk assessment. The maps should not be used in place of site-specific analyses, but may be used to prioritize
where site-specific analyses and new geotechnical investigations are most needed. Finally, the maps can be used
to identify which sections of the highway corridors would be likely be least affected by landslides, enabling it to
serve as a lifeline route
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