United States Department of Transportation
i
Transportation futures : policy scenarios for achieving greenhouse gas reduction targets.
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2014-03-01
[PDF-841.79 KB]
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Abstract:It is well established that GHG emissions must be reduced by 50% to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase
to 2°C. Achieving reductions of this magnitude in the transportation sector is a challenge and requires a multitude of policies
and technology options. The research presented here analyzes three scenarios: changes in the perceived price of travel, land-use intensification, and increases in transit. Elasticity estimates are derived using an activity-based travel model for the state of
California and broadly representative of the U.S. The VISION model is used to forecast changes in technology and fuel options
that are currently forecast to occur in the U.S., providing a life cycle GHG forecast for the road transportation sector. Results
suggest that aggressive policy action is needed, especially pricing policies, but also more on the technology side. Medium- and
heavy-duty vehicles are in particular need of additional fuel or technology-based GHG reductions.
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