United States Department of Transportation
i
ITS horizon scan : the societal, technical, and environmental trends that will influence ITS research and deployment.
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2013-07-01
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[PDF-1.32 MB]
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Abstract:Horizon scans provide a “systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely developments including but not restricted to those at the margins of current thinking and planning” (British Office of Science and Innovation). This horizon scan identified and assessed the technical, institutional, commercial, and environmental trends that may positively or negatively affect ITS deployment over the long term. The purpose of the study was to help the ITS JPO understand the range of opportunities and threats that may warrant further investigation among the research programs. Early identification of these trends and assessment of their impact on the US transportation system enables the ITS program to proactively develop strategies for influencing these developments, mitigating their negative impacts, and maximizing their positive impacts.
Based on an extensive literature scan, 22 trends were identified for further analysis. A small expert panel then was assessed each of these trends in terms of the likelihood of the trend coming to fruition, when the trend was expected to have a significant impact on surface transportation, the types of impact each may have on the ITS program, the potential magnitude of that impact, and the time frame for when USDOT action might be needed.
Based on the expert panel assessment, five trends and trend combinations were selected for further review by the expert panel. These topics were:
• Big and Open Data / Connected Sensors / Machine to Machine Communications
• Performance Measures
• Government Fiscal Constraints
• Semi-Autonomous and Autonomous Vehicles
• Aging Population
Specific actions for consideration by the USDOT were developed for each of these five topic areas.
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