United States Department of Transportation
i
ALDOT economic sustainability.
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2013-01-01
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[PDF-3.04 MB]
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Edition:Final report.
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Abstract:This research used quantitative methods to document 15-year trends in various economic factors, from the very detailed (e.g., cost per ton for aggregate) to the very broad (total ALDOT annual receipts and expenditures), and for categories of receipts and expenditures as found in ALDOT annual reports. Based on these trends and accepted statistical forecasting methods, forecasts are developed and presented in tabular and graphical form for the 19-year period 2012-2030, with particular interest in 2020 and 2030. Econometric methods were used on monthly and quarterly records of Alabama gasoline consumption 1992-2011 to identify causal variables, such as Alabama employment levels, income, and gasoline tax rate, and their elasticities. The overall objective of this research was to construction, or to expand the construction expenditures to create transportation system enhancement. Where expenditure reductions could fund shortfalls in forecasted baseline budget, the impact (difficult trade-offs) of absorbing the shortfall in alternative ways has been quantified. Growth in demand for construction activity is stainability, as is the projected decline in gasoline consumption in the state. Both of these factors in ALDOT’s future were shown to create huge shortfalls in total revenue that cannot be absorbed by cost cutting; an increase in the fuel tax rate, or new sources of revenue, are clearly needed to sustain ALDOT in the next nineteen years.
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