Predicting vehicle sales from GDP in 48 countries : 2005-2011.

Details

• Creators:
  Sivak, Michael
• Corporate Creators:
  University of Michigan. Transportation Research Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  University of Michigan. Sustainable Worldwide Transportation
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Gross domestic product
  • Motor vehicle industry
  • Sales
  • Developed countries
  • Developing countries
  • Logarithms
  • Regression analysis
  • Motor vehicle industry
  • Sales forecasting
  • Developed countries
  More +
• Publication/ Report Number:
  UMTRI-2013-6
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  University of Michigan
• Abstract:
  This study examined the relationship between GDP and vehicle sales in 48 developed and ; developing countries during the years 2005 through 2011. The countries examined were ; Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech ; Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia, ; Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, ; Norway, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia, ; South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the United ; Kingdom, the United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The annual vehicle sales in the ; individual countries ranged from about 16 thousand to about 18.5 million. The annual GDP ; values for the individual countries ranged from about 23 billion to about 11.7 trillion constant ; 2000 US$. ; The main result is that the logarithm of GDP is a strong linear predictor of the logarithm of ; vehicle sales. This relationship held both for the seven years combined and for each individual ; year during these seven years—a period that included both general economic prosperity and ; economic downturn. ; Using the obtained regression equations, average vehicle sales per GDP value were ; calculated for the 48 countries for each of the eight time periods of interest. For the combined ; years 2005 through 2011, this turned out to be 1,869 vehicles per 1 billion constant 2000 US$.
  More +
• Format:
  PDF
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/25640/dot_25640_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.30 MB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:89605f2383cb7691028fbdebcc181e92eed4b9f01b0573a95286661ed918d4805047af736e54ae0025952d2b7e6c3ceb80ba507ab0a821a2f35f9a3cc4e46851