Abstract:
This study examined the relationship between GDP and vehicle sales in 48 developed and
developing countries during the years 2005 through 2011. The countries examined were
Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech
Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia,
Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
Norway, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia,
South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the United
Kingdom, the United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The annual vehicle sales in the
individual countries ranged from about 16 thousand to about 18.5 million. The annual GDP
values for the individual countries ranged from about 23 billion to about 11.7 trillion constant
2000 US$.
The main result is that the logarithm of GDP is a strong linear predictor of the logarithm of
vehicle sales. This relationship held both for the seven years combined and for each individual
year during these seven years—a period that included both general economic prosperity and
economic downturn.
Using the obtained regression equations, average vehicle sales per GDP value were
calculated for the 48 countries for each of the eight time periods of interest. For the combined
years 2005 through 2011, this turned out to be 1,869 vehicles per 1 billion constant 2000 US$.
United States Department of Transportation
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