Predicting vehicle sales from GDP in 48 countries : 2005-2011.

Details

• Creators:
  Sivak, Michael
• Corporate Creators:
  University of Michigan. Transportation Research Institute
• Corporate Contributors:
  University of Michigan. Sustainable Worldwide Transportation
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Developed Countries Developing Countries Gross Domestic Product Logarithms Motor Vehicle Industry Regression Analysis Sales Sales Forecasting
• Publication/ Report Number:
  UMTRI-2013-6
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  University of Michigan
• Abstract:
  This study examined the relationship between GDP and vehicle sales in 48 developed and
  
  developing countries during the years 2005 through 2011. The countries examined were
  
  Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech
  
  Republic, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, India, Indonesia,
  
  Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand,
  
  Norway, Pakistan, the Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia,
  
  South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Thailand, Turkey, the United
  
  Kingdom, the United States, Uruguay, and Venezuela. The annual vehicle sales in the
  
  individual countries ranged from about 16 thousand to about 18.5 million. The annual GDP
  
  values for the individual countries ranged from about 23 billion to about 11.7 trillion constant
  
  2000 US$.
  
  The main result is that the logarithm of GDP is a strong linear predictor of the logarithm of
  
  vehicle sales. This relationship held both for the seven years combined and for each individual
  
  year during these seven years—a period that included both general economic prosperity and
  
  economic downturn.
  
  Using the obtained regression equations, average vehicle sales per GDP value were
  
  calculated for the 48 countries for each of the eight time periods of interest. For the combined
  
  years 2005 through 2011, this turned out to be 1,869 vehicles per 1 billion constant 2000 US$.
  
  
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:5a261d1904e918cff17ddd196b78c99733c12dba30019855f409e0ef657c3fce
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/25640/dot_25640_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.30 MB ]