United States Department of Transportation
i
Analysis of en Route Operational Errors: Probability of Resolution and Time-on-Position
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2012-02-01
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By Bailey, L.
[PDF-743.71 KB]
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Abstract:The Federation Administration’s Air Traffic Control Organization Safety Management System (SMS) is
designed to prevent the introduction of unacceptable safety risk into the National Airspace System. One of the
most important safety metrics used in the Air Traffic Organization’s SMS is the rate and severity of air traffic
control operational errors (OEs). While OE rates tell us about the frequency of occurrence, the rates in and of
themselves do not provide a direct assessment of safety risk. Two additional metrics are proposed for inclusion in
the Air Traffic Organization’s SMS. These include the probability of resolution (POR) index and the time-onposition
probability (TOPP) index. Whereas the POR is a measure of OE containment (i.e., resolving a loss of
separation before the situation worsens), the TOPP is a measure of the occupational risk of an OE occurring due
to traffic exposure. In this report, each metric is mathematically developed and empirically evaluated using
archival en route data.
In Study 1, the utility of the POR is evaluated based on 1293 OEs extracted from an en route OE research
database for the period May 1, 2001 to May 31, 2003.
In Study 2, the utility of the TOPP is evaluated based on 1,397,206 time-on-position entries from six en route
centers for the 2006 calendar year. The results of both studies are discussed within a SMS framework.
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