United States Department of Transportation
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Abstract:"One of the primary functions of transportation planning is to predict future travel
behavior. Using estimated travel patterns, planners can then help decision makers
select the array of projects that will best suit the needs of their community. Travel
behavior is a function of many variables, with cost being among the most important.
Recent fluctuations in the price of gas provide an excellent opportunity to observe the
impact of the price of gas on travel behavior. This project goes a step beyond looking
at the elasticity of travel with respect to gas price by examining how recent changes in
gas prices have impacted travel on specific facilities: toll facilities. Data from around
the US was used to examine how traffic levels on toll roads have been affected by
fluctuations in gas prices over the last several years. This study developed models
that account for the many other exogenous factors influencing toll road use (such as
local economy, population, and toll rates), and provide an elasticity of toll road
demand with respect to gas price independent of those other factors. This study will
provide planners and toll road authorities with valuable information on how travelers
react to increasing cost of travel when already selecting a mode with an added cost
(the toll). The research findings indicated that travel demand elasticity estimates with
respect to gas price were inelastic and mostly negative. Elasticities found here for the
period from 2000 to 2010 ranged from −0.36 to +0.14, similar to those found in the
literature for non-toll facilities. However, the average value of the elasticities found
here were much smaller (closer to −0.06) than those found for non-toll facilities."
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