United States Department of Transportation
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Construction cost forecast model : model documentation and technical notes.
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2013-05-01
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By Mills, Peter
[PDF-1.06 MB]
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NTL Classification:NTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE;NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-Construction and Maintenance;NTL-HIGHWAY/ROAD TRANSPORTATION-Materials;
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Abstract:Construction cost indices are generally estimated with Laspeyres, Paasche, or Fisher indices that allow changes
in the quantities of construction bid items, as well as changes in price to change the cost indices of those items.
These cost indices, while useful in forecasting the near-term costs of construction contracts for projects that
have been designed and are about to be let, are not good indicators of price inflation in highway construction.
This report contains the documentation and supporting technical notes for a statistical model that estimates
changes in the price components of the Colorado Construction Cost Index. The model contains two
specifications. In the first, the composite construction index is a function of the producer prices of inputs: oil,
concrete, steel, labor and equipment. In the second, the composite construction index is a function of the price of
oil, wages and nationwide demand for construction services.
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