Integrated transportation scenario planning.
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Integrated transportation scenario planning.

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    • Abstract:
      Regional land use‐transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S.

      metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues

      to track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects

      completed between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of

      scenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for

      future growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107

      scenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables

      and vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact

      development—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill,

      mixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use‐‐could result in 25% fewer VMT

      compared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate

      important methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long‐range

      regional transportation planning processes.

      These important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by

      continued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land

      use‐based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate

      important changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change

      and peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.

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