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Integrated transportation scenario planning.
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2010-07-01
[PDF-9.72 MB]
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Abstract:Regional land use‐transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S.
metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues
to track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects
completed between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of
scenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for
future growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107
scenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables
and vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact
development—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill,
mixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use‐‐could result in 25% fewer VMT
compared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate
important methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long‐range
regional transportation planning processes.
These important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by
continued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land
use‐based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate
important changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change
and peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.
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