Details:

Creators:
Bartholomew, Keith ; Ewing, Reid ; Meakins, Gail
Bartholomew, Keith ; Ewing, Reid ; Meakins, Gail Less -
Corporate Creators:
University of Utah. Metropolitan Research Center
Corporate Contributors:
United States. Federal Highway Administration. Surface Transportation Environment and Planning Cooperative Research Program
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Transportation planning

Publication/ Report Number:
FHWA-HEP-10-034
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Corporate Publisher:
United States. Federal Highway Administration
Abstract:
Regional land use‐transportation scenario planning emerged as a planning technique in U.S.

metropolitan areas in the 1990s. Building on prior work by this research team, this study continues

to track the development and expansion of regional scenario planning, using 28 projects

completed between 2003 and 2010. These projects demonstrate the continued popularity of

scenario planning techniques when used to articulate and evaluate compact alternatives for

future growth. The research team used hierarchical multivariate modeling to evaluate 107

scenarios, demonstrating important associations between land use and transportation variables

and vehicle travel demand. Coefficients from this analysis suggest that a shift to compact

development—increasing average regional density by 50 percent by 2050, emphasizing infill,

mixing land uses, and increasing the price of automobile use‐‐could result in 25% fewer VMT

compared to amounts projected under trend conditions. The projects also demonstrate

important methods for effectively integrating scenario techniques into traditional long‐range

regional transportation planning processes.

These important advances in regional scenario practice are hampered, to some degree, by

continued limitations in the ability of travel demand models to evaluate the impacts of land

use‐based strategies. Another limitation is the failure by project sponsors to incorporate

important changes in global economic and environmental conditions, such as climate change

and peak oil, both as input variables and as evaluation metrics.


Format:
PDF
Collection(s):
US Transportation Collection
Federal Highway Administration
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:39bfb39ec00488764da84ca77f3054b28162532023bbd43945f0db7c2917270e
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