United States Department of Transportation
i
The future of personal transportation in megacities of the world.
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2010-02-01
[PDF-1.54 MB]
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Abstract:This study examined the future of personal transportation in megacities of the world.
Of particular interest was the future role of personal vehicles. To span ranges of
geographical, political, and economic factors, the following 15 megacities were included
in the analysis: Chicago, New York, London, Moscow, Paris, Buenos Aires, Mexico City,
Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Bangalore, Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and
Shanghai. The current and future values of the following factors were considered:
population, wealth, level of motorization, public transportation, and modal split. Also
discussed were selected urban transportation plans and strategies.
Based on the analysis, projections through 2025 were made for each megacity for
changes in ownership of personal vehicles; distance traveled by personal vehicle within
inner core, for commuting, and for leisure; and for number of road fatalities.
The projections were based on treating the different transportation modes as
independent and exclusive options. However, there is growing implementation and use of
new mobility networks—integrated networks that provide a variety of connected and ITenhanced
transportation options door-to-door. Although such networks are expected to
reduce reliance on personal vehicles, the magnitude and nature of this effect remain to be
ascertained.
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