Road weather forecast quality analysis
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Road weather forecast quality analysis

Filetype[PDF-1.32 MB]


English
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Details:

  • Creators:
  • Corporate Creators:
    K-TRAN (Research program)
  • Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Publication/ Report Number:
    K-TRAN: KSU-04-5
  • Resource Type:
    Tech Report
  • Geographical Coverage:
    Kansas
  • Edition:
    Final Report; July 2003 - August 2005
  • Corporate Publisher:
    Kansas. Dept. of Transportation
  • NTL Classification:
    NTL-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS-Road Weather Management;NTL-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS;
  • Abstract:
    It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in

    the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role

    in highway operations, and accurate weather forecasts help the maintenance forces plan for weather events. The

    purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOT’s Roadway Weather Information System by improving the

    weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of confidence in these forecasts.

    Monitoring of the forecasts is necessary to assure that their accuracy meets the expectations of the agency.

    However, to properly evaluate the forecast quality, accurate sensor data from the monitoring stations are essential. The

    researchers found that at least some of the wind direction and moisture sensors at the RWIS sites were malfunctioning.

    Because of the limitations of having just one year of storm events, a statistically reliable statement could not be made

    about ranking the three vendors. However, it was observed that there was a tendency to over-predict certain conditions.

    The storage and retrieval system limited the ability to evaluate the prediction of the timing and occurrence of storm

    events. Opinions by field personnel on the formats of the forecasts varied but were generally very favorable toward

    SSI. Some metrics that were identified to be key elements to evaluate forecast accuracy prior to the study and later

    confirmed during interviews with field personnel were not archived or the sensors were providing erroneous ground

    truth. Based on field observations, the temperature sensors were reporting very accurately at and around the freezing

    point.

    This report contains analysis that substantiates the problems with the data, analysis of the available data to compare

    the forecasts of the vendors and recommendations of procedures for monitoring sensor performance, data storage and

    retrieval, and items to consider in contract negotiations.

  • Format:
    PDF
  • Funding:
    C1408
  • Collection(s):
  • Main Document Checksum:
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  • File Type:

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