Road weather forecast quality analysis

Details

• Creators:
  Landman, E. Dean ; Dissanayake, Sunanda ; Knapp, Mary ; He, Wei
• Corporate Creators:
  K-TRAN (Research program)
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Weather forecasting
  • Intelligent transportation systems programs
  • Road weather information systems
  • Transportation planning
  • Reliability
  • Evaluation and assessment
• Publication/ Report Number:
  K-TRAN: KSU-04-5
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  Kansas
• Edition:
  Final Report; July 2003 - August 2005
• Corporate Publisher:
  Kansas. Dept. of Transportation
• NTL Classification:
  NTL-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS-Road Weather Management ; NTL-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS-INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS
• Abstract:
  It is just as important to keep the highways functioning in a safe and efficient manner as it is to construct them in ; the first place. Our economy is built around an efficient transportation system. Winter weather plays an important role ; in highway operations, and accurate weather forecasts help the maintenance forces plan for weather events. The ; purpose of this research is to enhance the use of KDOT’s Roadway Weather Information System by improving the ; weather forecasts themselves and raising the level of confidence in these forecasts. ; Monitoring of the forecasts is necessary to assure that their accuracy meets the expectations of the agency. ; However, to properly evaluate the forecast quality, accurate sensor data from the monitoring stations are essential. The ; researchers found that at least some of the wind direction and moisture sensors at the RWIS sites were malfunctioning. ; Because of the limitations of having just one year of storm events, a statistically reliable statement could not be made ; about ranking the three vendors. However, it was observed that there was a tendency to over-predict certain conditions. ; The storage and retrieval system limited the ability to evaluate the prediction of the timing and occurrence of storm ; events. Opinions by field personnel on the formats of the forecasts varied but were generally very favorable toward ; SSI. Some metrics that were identified to be key elements to evaluate forecast accuracy prior to the study and later ; confirmed during interviews with field personnel were not archived or the sensors were providing erroneous ground ; truth. Based on field observations, the temperature sensors were reporting very accurately at and around the freezing ; point. ; This report contains analysis that substantiates the problems with the data, analysis of the available data to compare ; the forecasts of the vendors and recommendations of procedures for monitoring sensor performance, data storage and ; retrieval, and items to consider in contract negotiations.
  More +
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  C1408
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/16494/dot_16494_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.32 MB]
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha256:fefbfc0f8379178f2aa96931bfbe1f0de1710610d8617e30e321f0b1a25f030c