Field evaluation of descent advisor trajectory prediction accuracy
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1996-07-01
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NTL Classification:NTL-AVIATION-AVIATION;NTL-AVIATION-Air Traffic Control;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/Airworthiness;NTL-REFERENCES AND DIRECTORIES-Statistics;
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Abstract:The Descent Advisor (DA) automation tool has undergone a series of field tests
at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center to study the feasibility of
DA-based clearances and procedures. The latest evaluation, conducted in the
fall of 1995, expanded the operational nature of DA testing to include a wider
variety of test conditions. A total of 197 commercial flights from three
airlines participated in the study over twenty-three days of testing. Aircraft
included large and heavy jet transports, both conventional- and
flight-management-system-equipped, and turboprop commuter types. The primary
objective was to measure DA trajectory prediction accuracy for use in
validating DA metering advisories and developing conflict-probe error models.
Previous evaluations, involving large jet types only, demonstrated an arrival
time prediction accuracy within 20 sec. The 1995 test results indicate a mean
error of 0.5 sec late with a standard deviation of 14.3 sec. The least
variation was found for flight-management-system-equipped jets with a standard
deviation of 11.9 sec compared to 15.2 and 15.4 sec for conventional-equipped
jets and turboprop types respectively. This paper describes the test and
presents an analysis of the descent trajectory prediction accuracy in terms of
errors in the horizontal profile, altitude profile, and arrival time. 13p.
Copyright S 1996 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.
The U.S.Government has a royalty-free license to exercise all rights under the
copyright claimed herein for government purposes. All other rights are reserved
by the copyright owner.
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