Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight

Details

• Creators:
  Paielli, Russell A. ; Erzberger, Heinz
• Corporate Contributors:
  Ames Research Center
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  Advanced Automation System (Air Traffic Control) Aircraft Separation Airspace Utilization Air Traffic Control Automated Conflict Prediction And Resolution Advisories Conflict Prediction Flight Paths Forecasting Free Flight Mathematical Models Trajectory Prediction

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• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.21949/1403482
• Resource Type:
  Research Paper
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Corporate Publisher:
  Ames Research Center
• Abstract:
  The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction, however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of uncertainty. This paper presents a method to estimate that conflict probability. The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single, equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and a Monte Carlo validation are presented.
• Content Notes:
  This paper was published in the Journal of Guidance, Control, and Dynamics, vol. 20, no. 3, May-June 1997, pp.588-596.
• Format:
  PDF
• Collection(s):
  US Transportation Collection
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:b177da65ef34e7a883a0e8fb493640b6e4f0fab4fad0ad8697ea15a91ba0de861840ec62762e75be024032e61f639fd4fb7b1015ba1bf316e513e54e76204dba
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/12771/dot_12771_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 277.10 KB ]