United States Department of Transportation
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Conflict Probability Estimation for Free Flight
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1996-01-01
[PDF-277.10 KB]
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TRIS Online Accession Number:00881320
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NTL Classification:NTL-AVIATION-AVIATION;NTL-AVIATION-Air Traffic Control;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Human Factors;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/Airworthiness;
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Abstract:The safety and efficiency of free flight will benefit from automated conflict
prediction and resolution advisories. Conflict prediction is based on
trajectory prediction and is less certain the farther in advance the prediction,
however. An estimate is therefore needed of the probability that a conflict
will occur, given a pair of predicted trajectories and their levels of
uncertainty. This paper presents a method to estimate that conflict probability.
The trajectory prediction errors are modeled as normally distributed, and the
two error covariances for an aircraft pair are combined into a single,
equivalent covariance of the relative position. A coordinate transformation is
then used to derive an analytical solution. Numerical examples and a Monte
Carlo validation are presented. 11p. Due to the poor photographic quality of
the original, this .pdf version is illegible on the screen; however, a printed
out version will be legible. This paper was published in the Journal of Guidance,
Control, and Dynamics, vol. 20, no. 3, May-June 1997, pp.588-596.
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