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Abstract:The report discusses the analytical and simulation procedures that were used to evaluate the effects of failure in a complex dual mode transportation system based on a worst case study-state condition. The computed results are an availability figure of merit and not an absolute prediction with associated confidence levels of system availability. The advantage of this procedure is that it avoids the use of a dynamic network traffic flow simulation which is both costly and time-consuming. The analytical and simulation approach taken encompasses fault tree and failure mode and effect analyses. The novel aspect of this approach is the use of the Monte Carlo technique to determine the physical location of failed vehicles in the system (on or off the guideway, in station berths, or at various merge/demerge sectors).
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