Satisfaction of the Automotive Fleet Fuel Demand and Its Impact on the Oil Refining Industry
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1980-12-01
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By Moore, M. A.
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NTL Classification:NTL-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT-ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT;NTL-ECONOMICS AND FINANCE-Economic Impacts;
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Abstract:Because virtually all transportation fuels are based on petroleum, it is essential to include petroleum refining in any assessment of potential changes in the transportation system. A number of changes in the automotive fleet have been proposed to improve efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions. Some of these changes would have an impact on the petroleum refining industry. A mathematical model of the U.S. petroleum refining industry was developed to provide a technologically sound basis for the assessment of such impacts. Case studies performed and included in this report are the following: A Potential Shift from Gasoline to Diesel Engines--In a 1995 conservation scenario, automotive diesel-to-gasoline ratios were studied over a range of 0.17/1 to 0.8/1. A minimun refining cost was reached at a ratio of 0.3/1, with a saving of about 2.2 cents per gallon of gasoline plus diesel compared with the cost for the 0.17/1 case. Refining energy consumption reaches a minimum at the 0.5/1 ratio, but it is only 0.08 percentage points below the base of 6.25 percent. The Potential Requirement of Sulfur Removal from Gasoline and Diesel Fuel--In the same scenario, gasoline hydrodesulfurization (HDS) to an average sulfur content of 100 ppm costs about 2 cents per gallon, and diesel HDS to 200 ppm costs about 3 cents per gallon. This work was performed during the 1975-1977 time period. Therefore, it predates and does not consider the possible implications of the current synfuels program.
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