Probabilistic Predictions of Traffic Demand for En Route Sectors Based on Individual Flight Data

Gilbo, Eugene; Smith, Scott; John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, (U.S.)

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Probabilistic Predictions of Traffic Demand for En Route Sectors Based on Individual Flight Data

2010-01-01
By Gilbo, Eugene ; Smith, Scott

[PDF-882.19 KB]

English

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Details:

Creators:

Gilbo, Eugene ; Smith, Scott

Gilbo, Eugene ; Smith, Scott Less -
Corporate Creators:

John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, (U.S.)
Corporate Contributors:

United States. Federal Aviation Administration
Subject/TRT Terms:

[+]

Advanced Automation System (Air Traffic Control) Air Traffic Control Decision Support Systems Empirical Methods Flow Control (Air Traffic Control) Mathematical Prediction Uncertainty
Publication/ Report Number:

DOT-VNTSC-TFM-10-01
Resource Type:

Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:

United States
Corporate Publisher:

John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
NTL Classification:

NTL-AVIATION-AVIATION;NTL-AVIATION-Air Traffic Control;NTL-AVIATION-Aviation Safety/Airworthiness;NTL-AVIATION-Airports and Facilities;
Abstract:

The Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS) predicts the demand for each sector, and traffic managers use these predictions to spot possible congestion and to take measures to prevent it. These predictions of sector demand, however, are currently made in a deterministic way with no regard for the uncertainty in the predictions. The purpose of this report is to discuss how these deterministic predictions can be misleading, how probabilistic predictions of aggregate traffic demand counts can be made that take account of the uncertainty in predicting timing events for individual flights, and how this can lead to better information on which traffic managers can base their decisions.
Format:

PDF
Collection(s):

Volpe Center
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:a53176186627860a9f48ff6614185c462e98dba0e50271bf1c4fcd72a45aa68a
Download URL:

https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/10633/dot_10633_DS1.pdf
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Probabilistic Predictions of Traffic Demand for En Route Sectors Based on Individual Flight Data

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