The Demand for Light Duty Trucks: The Wharton EFA Motor Vehicle Demand Model (Mark II)
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1981-01-01
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Abstract:A preliminary model of U.S. light-duty vehicle demand is presented which contains an integrated analysis of automobiles and light trucks (under 10,000 lbs. GVW). The model has been estimated using both cross-section and time-series data, and is a development of previous Wharton models. It is a long-run, annual, econometric model providing both forecasts and policy analyses. Light trucks are divided into personal-use and commercial-use categories. The latter are quite distinct in behavior, while personal-use truck demand is combined with automobile demand, and shows many similarities in its determinants. The model includes relationships and estimates for: vehicles in operation, sales, new registrations, scrappage, purchase prices, fuel economy, vehicle miles travelled, gasoline consumption, and other operating costs, taxes, and the influence of demographics.
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