Statistical Estimation of Rollover Risk

Details

• Creators:
  Mengert, Peter ; Salvatore, S ; Disario, Robert ; Walters, R.
• Corporate Creators:
  John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
• Subject/TRT Terms:
  • Rollover crashes
  • Stability (Mechanics)
  • Mathematical models
  • Risk analysis
  • Regression analysis
  • Estimation theory
  • Statistical analysis
  • Crashes
  • Rollover
  • Logistic Regression
  More +
• Publication/ Report Number:
  DOT-TSC-NHTSA-89-3 ; DOT-HS-807-446
• Resource Type:
  Tech Report
• Geographical Coverage:
  United States
• Edition:
  Final Report March 1988 - May 1989
• Corporate Publisher:
  United States. Department of Transportation. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Abstract:
  This report describes the results of a statistical analysis to determine the ; probability of a rollover in a single vehicle accident. Over 39,000 accidents, ; which included 4910 rollovers in the states of Texas, Maryland, and Washington were ; examined for 40 vehicle make/models using logistic regression analyses. ; Mathematical models were developed that related vehicle factors such as wheelbase ; and stability factor, (one-half the track width divided by the center of gravity ; height) and accident factors, (driver and the environmental variables), to rollover ; probability. ; It was found that at the accident level (predicting rollover versus nonrollover) ; the vehicle stability factor and whether the accident occurred on an urban or rural ; road are important predictors of rollover probability. At the vehicle make/model ; level (comparison of predicted and actual rollover rates for the 40 make/models), ; the index of agreement (r2) exceeded 0.90 with the stability factor in the ; regression model. Without the stability factor, the r2 dropped to 0.53 indicating ; the importance of this factor. Other factors added little to predicting rollover ; at the make/model level.
  More +
• Format:
  PDF
• Funding:
  HS902/S9001
• Download URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8620/dot_8620_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 2.53 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Volpe Center
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:b8eb1d9f15a07b1031571aeff45319daa422a765fd5fe1d8962d9e56e98d75d4014e8c9296cd41c4596cee1a473c53b8a30860211fb6a1bded14b3540998a365