Details:

Creators:
Mengert, Peter ; Borener, S.
Mengert, Peter ; Borener, S. Less -
Corporate Creators:
John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (U.S.)
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Automobiles Fatalities Vehicle Safety Vehicles By Weight Vehicle Weight
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Edition:
Final Report
Corporate Publisher:
United States. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
NTL Classification:
NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-SAFETY AND SECURITY;NTL-SAFETY AND SECURITY-Human Factors;
Abstract:
This report addresses the question of the effect on the fatality risk to the public at

large due to shifts in the weight distributions of passenger cars. For example, if the

weight o f the average passenger car were decreased would fatalities increase? If so,

by how much? Past studies have stressed the effect s on occupants. But even if

heavier cars are safer for their occupants the effect on occupants "of other vehicles

and pedestrians may be affected differently. "

In this study, fatalities are normalized by registrations in 6 passenger car weight

classes. On remultiplying by hypothetical numbers o f registered vehicles, fatality

projections pertaining to hypothetical fleet mixes can be calculated and compared.

When fatalities from various base years are used, a range of estimates can be formed

in an attempt to examine the basic question.

When this program is carried out using FARS fatal accident data for the years from

1978 to 1987, the estimates indicate that the heavier hypothetical fleet (based on a

1978 mix) is probably safer for the public as a whole than the lighter hypothetical

fleet (based on 1987). A quantitative estimate is hard to j ust i f y, but our results very

roughly suggest a 3% advantage in saf et y for the heavier fleet.

When the results are broken down by accident type, they are variable: fatalities in

single vehicle accidents would probably be considerably less in the heavier fleet, while

pedestrian deaths may actually be less for the lighter fleet.

Because of the difficulty of the question and the inability to control confounding

factors, all estimates here must be considered tentative and no great accuracy should

be ascribed to them.


Format:
PDF
Collection(s):
Volpe
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:b658a01c89b18a418371efc7a6d8d16da56c5f39054380c276ea69d5861fd5bc
Download URL:
https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/8619/dot_8619_DS1.pdf
File Type:

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