Details:

Creators:
Aguiar-Moya, José Pablo ; Prozzi, Jorge
Aguiar-Moya, José Pablo ; Prozzi, Jorge Less -
Corporate Creators:
University of Texas at Austin. Center for Transportation Research
Subject/TRT Terms:
[+]
Mathematical Models Pavement Design Pavements--Design And Construction--Mathematical Models Paving
Publication/ Report Number:
SWUTC/11/161025-1
Resource Type:
Tech Report
Geographical Coverage:
Texas
Corporate Publisher:
Southwest Region University Transportation Center (U.S.)
Abstract:
The current report proposes a framework for estimating the reliability of a given pavement structure as analyzed by

the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG). The methodology proposes using a previously fit

response surface, in place of the time-demanding implicit limit state functions used within the MEPDG, in

combination with an analytical approach to estimating reliability using First-Order and Second-Order Reliability

Methods (FORM and SORM). Additionally, in order to assess the accuracy of the FORM and SORM reliability

estimates, Monte Carlo simulations are also performed.

A case study based on a three-layered pavement structure is used to demonstrate the methodology. Several

pavement design variables are treated as random; these include HMA and base layer thicknesses, base and

subgrade modulus, and HMA layer binder and air void content. Information on the variability and correlation

between these variables are obtained from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program.

Response surfaces for limit states dealing with HMA rutting failure are fit using several runs of the MEPDG based

on a factorial design of combinations among the aforementioned random variables, as well as traffic, structural, and

climatic considerations. These response surfaces are then used to analyze the reliability of the given pavement

structure.

Using the second moment and simulation techniques, it was found that on average the reliability estimate by the

MEPDG is very conservative. Additionally, the validity of the methodology is verified by means of direct

simulation using the MEPDG. Finally, recommendations on fitting the response surface are provided to ensure the

applicability of the methodology.


Format:
PDF
Funding:
10727
Collection(s):
US Transportation Collection University Transportation Centers
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:cda015c177acc4f71c8d0deabfd5ec1d2d60b14b671f4112d740530bd37d39e4
Download URL:
https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/23110/dot_23110_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

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